I’m back today to remind you about my favorite political datapoint and what it says about America. I bet it’s one you’re at least vaguely aware of. But I’d also bet it’s one you often forget about in the heat of a presidential election.

My favorite political datapoint is this: Over roughly the past 40 years, Democrats have won the popular vote all but ONE time.

My thesis which follows directly from this datapoint is as follows: America is a “Center-Left” Nation, and has been for a very long time.

Let’s talk about both the datapoint and the thesis.

And then finally pile the hot-mess of our Electoral College on the top of it.

First: AMERICA IS A CENTER LEFT NATION. And the data shows it.

That’s my thesis, and if you’ve read my stuff anywhere for the past 20 years, you’ve heard me say this before.

My simple argument is this: If you are an observer of Americans, if you’re a thought-leader in any field of endeavor (including being a pastor) it behoves you to answer the question: “Who are Americans, at heart, politically?”

And sure, Gallup, et al, makes a fortune TELLING you what Americans believe. But every poll is susceptible to some kind of spin. Every news organization has some editorial slant. And, most certainly, every politician on all sides, and all political parties, have an agenda.

Therefore, what data, outside of those spin-able factors can we look at and feel confident in?

Friends, there’s *no better* statement of the true will of the American people than the popular vote for president.

The popular vote isn’t some phone poll, or randomized snapshot of “likely voters.” It’s not a reporter asking spontaneous “man on the street” questions of some dude in a bar. It is literally *the best available data* to us to help us answer this fundamental question.

And here is the data:

In every election, save one, since 1988— Americans have voted in the majority for the DEMOCRAT, not the Republican. The only except to Democratic popular vote dominance is 2004, when many Americans (not me) believed we were in an existentially important war in Iraq.

See FIGURE 1 below (my creation), so that you can see it for yourselves.

Since 1988, Democrats have won the popular vote 7 out of 8 times there have been an election.

Only ONE time in the past 40 years (38 years, to be exact) have Americans voted in the majority for the Republican.

This data is where I get my assertion, which I have repeated (I will again note) almost every election for the past twenty years:

America is a Center-Left nation. If you’re data-driven at all, the data is what we’d call “irrefutable.”

Let’s quickly say, I don’t personally believe America is a FAR left nation.

I mean, you might credibly argue that it is…or that it’s at least a tad farther left than “Center-Left.” And if you wanted to assert that, my “hunch” is, you’re probably right. If you factor in the non-voting public, my hunch is American leans to the left by something like 10-12%.

But that’s an assertion that neither I, nor any of you, can prove with presidential election data.

What we *can* prove is that Americans tell us every four years who they are, and like Maya Angelou said, we should listen to them.

Further, what we can ALSO say, unequivocally, without any shred of doubt, is that America *not* a “Center-Right” country.

And we can finally, and confidentially assert, there is no evidence whatsoever…not one shred of it…that American is a “Far Right Country.”

There is no election, in forty years, where a Republican or Conservative candidate dominated at the polls. In fact, the margin of victory for the lone Republican win doesn’t even crack the top half of all margins in the past 40 years. Again, very credible evidence to refute any claim that Americans are “Far Right” in nature.

There are two important reasons we tend to forget this data.

One reason is that Republicans, and their Evangelical collaborators, are very very good at “spin.”

Those of us who are a certain age recall “The Moral Majority.” The reality is: Even when that group was at the zenith of its political power, it probably wasn’t true they were the “majority” of Americans. But they *asserted* they were, confidently. And right wing preachers and pundits relentlessly reinforced the message. Republicans, time and again, excel at messaging.

The second reason we tend to forget is: The Electoral College.

In two of these elections since 1988, the Republican candidate (Bush, Trump) became the president, despite the fact that the Democratic candidate (Gore, Clinton) won the popular will of the people.

While it’s demonstrably true the Democrats own the popular vote that year, we tell ourselves it doesn’t matter. “What matters,” we collectively say, “is who gets to govern, and who gets to rule.”

There is no question that this matters are great deal. It matters a great deal that the will of the majority of Americans has twice been thwarted these past 40 years.

I’ll get to my current concerns about the antiquated and harmful Electoral College momentarily. But one of the more sinister effects of these EC victories is that they tend to smooth out everyone’s memory of who actually won the popular vote.

We over-assumed about America’s theoretical conservative “lean” in both 2000 *and* 2016, when in the latter case, it is factually true that more Americans voted for woman to be president.

Why do I keep coming back to this, year on year…election after election?

Why does it matter, if all that “matters” about the election is who wins the EC?

I would argue that it matters because it affects how we talk about ourselves, to ourselves.

It matters because of who we assume we are, when we see each other in the grocery store, or at the ballpark.

It matters because the internal framing and messaging we “assume,” the things we tell ourselves about ourselves, ultimately manifests itself in how we act and what we do.

Let me go a bit further…I am aware that there are many, many voters that fall on both sides of the 50-50 divide. In fact, it’s credible to say both of our political parties tend to court those voters, relentlessly.

If you are one of those persons — and especially if you have lived with the internal belief that American is “Center-Right” for most of your life, I would gently suggest to you: You are out of step with who American is now, and very credibly will be even further out of step in the future.

Americans tell us, time and again, that they are farther left than you are. There is a continuum of progressive moment that has been, and will be, ongoing into the foreseeable future.

And if you haven’t reframed where you stand, perhaps now is the time.

No, I’m not telling you who to vote for in November.

But I am suggesting: Your Center-Right frame potentially blinds you from seeing who the majority of Americans tell us they are.

Let me use just one example from my own life, when I saw “Center-Right” thought leaders deeply out of step with America as a whole.

In our United Methodist Church, I could see…as early as 2010…that Americans had rapidly changing views on homosexuality. At the time, I served a church that was supportive of the LGBTQ community.

I never, for one moment, believed all Americans believed as we did . But I knew with bedrock certainty that Americans views were shifting to the left, while our United Methodist Chuch was, counter-factually, shifting to the right. (It’s way too long a story to recount why we were shifting that way…and it’s water under the bridge…)

Time and again, from roughly between 2012 and 2020, I saw MODERATE United Methodist thought-leaders hedge and react in the fear of change. I am 100% convinced some of this was because they misjudged the true Center-Left nature of American’s views on LGBTQ inclusion.

The result was a very long, and very painful, 10 year battle for the soul of our denomination that is now, gracefully, now over. But make no mistake what I believe to the core of my being to the day I die:

That MODERATES, had they correctly deduced where Americans really were on this issue, could and should have saved us all from the some of the suffering of this past decade. Yes, I’m sure it would have still been painful.

But things didn’t shift until those moderates made the choice to “flip” from the “Center-Right” to the “Center-Left.”

And we could have all been saved a great deal of pain and suffering if they’d seen and embraced this sooner.

By analogy, I suppose this is my message to “Center-Right” people, more broadly. It’s time to finally embrace the true nature of your fellow citizens, and admit that American is Center-Left. This is not asking you to believe a specific set of principles, or vote a specific party. It’s inviting you to embrace reality, driven by data.

Let me go further, barring some unforeseen circumstances, I find it highly credible that the Democrats/Harris will again win the popular vote this Fall. America’s “Center-Left” preference is likely to move to a 8-to-1 margin over the past 40 years.

But…but….but…lets’ talk about the Electoral College and this election…and in this, a final word for everyone on the board political left. (Anyone left of an absolutely “zero” point between right and left…)

Please know and understand the very real, and very true “Electoral College Bias.” For this, please see FIGURE 2, taken from Nate Silver’s “The Silver Bulletin.” Silver’s wonky data analysis puts into stark relief what we Democrats and Progressives have known for years…that there is a built-in bias in the presidential election system that favors Republicans.

This chart may look bad to you. Let me tell you: it looked even worse a week ago…

The chart shows that if Donald Trump wins the popular vote by .5%, he has a 97% chance of becoming president.

That probably feels fair, doesn’t it?

Because most Americans assume the popular vote should mirror the Electoral College vote.

But now, flip it the other way.

If Harris wins the popular vote by the same .5%, she has a 90% chance of LOSING the election!

In fact, Kamala Harris has to win a popular vote by 4-5% before she gets to the same level of certainty (96.6%) that Donald Trump has if he just wins by .5%!!!

This is a fact that wonky, political types who follow presidential elections, on both sides of the aisle, have known for many years. This has been true for a long time now.

It’s like the old joke about Astair and Rodgers…Harris (or any Democrat) has to dance backwards and in high heels to get/do the same job.

Why pay attention to this?

Because: This kind of bias and the false narrative that Republican Presidential victories create…

…led Trump to falsely claim the election was stolen from him 2020.

…led directly to the January 6th insurrection.

…led directly to the planning *behind* January 6th

.. led to slate of fake electors, and tons of frivolous lawsuits.

All this chaos comes from a system that does not simply accept the popular vote as the will of the people.

The Electoral College, IMHO, leads to a massive amount of the partisan “stacking” that America is doing today. Our country is not longer “sorted” as much across the ideological divide, but we stack our values for “Team Red,” and “Team Blue,” even though we are as humans beings cross-sorted in our real world lives.

Each of us have core beliefs that tend to, in a complicated way, cut across the Red-Blue binary that we all pretend is a real thing.

The Electoral College was originally intended to cool fierce political debate.

Instead in our day, it actually perpetuates it.

It pushes everyone even further toward binary A/B choice. And, as we’ve just been showing, a choice that often cuts against the will of the majority of Americans.

To my mind, the Electoral College is political unsustainable. Im mean that literally. As I look out over the next 10-20 years, I see no way the EC won’t continue to perpetuate our fierce political differences.

And to be clear: I don’t think the ferocity of our political debate is sustainable. The system itself is at risk, not because Americans are not sure of who they are and what they believe, but because, and forgive me for saying this, “the system IS rigged.” Just not the way Trump believes.

(Remember, when he accuses, he is always also confessing…)

The Electoral Colleges gives people on the Right a false sense of security that the majority of Americans share their views.

The Electoral College gives people on the broad Left a sense of despair that either leads to the depression of non-voting, or the feeling that we should just burn the whole system down.

Either way, it has become deeply harmful to how we see each other, how we see ourselves, how we frame our debates, and ultimately how we treat actual humans in the actual real world.

But….here’s where it gets tough…

Do I think it’s politically likely that anybody will have the will to CHANGE that system?

No, I do not.

And this, more than anything else in our nation, gives me a sense of foreboding and keeps me awake at night.

I feel much like I felt in the 2010s, as I looked at my beloved UMC and despaired for how it would/could ever change. Something needs to give, and this is where my own ability to analysis a situation comes right up against political reality.

I know this: If Donald Trump wins this Fall, there is a likely chance that for the third time in 40 years, the will of the majority of Americans will have been thwarted once again.

I know that if Kamala Harris wins, far too many of my own friend will breath a sigh of relief, and forget all about this fundamental flaw in our electoral politics and how it harming ordinary people and how we see each other.

Everybody has a thing they worry about most, and this result in an Electoral College system (meaning: whoever wins in November) is what I worry about most.

That said, I feel very confident my view that “American is Center-Left” is about to be vindicated one more time. I’m pretty confident the record will move to 8-and-1 over these past 40 years.

As for the system itself, and how is self-perpetuates harm and division, I think all I can do is to pray that enough of us come to see it as well, and to ask ourselves the deeper questions about what system changes are still needed so that going forward our system doesn’t continue to be so out of step with our people’s will.